Analyzing Donald Trump's performance in Iowa

As news began to trickle in that GOP front runner Donald Trump had secured a second place at Iowa Caucus, political pundits, detractors and his rivals began gleefully pronouncing it as his political demise. They could hardly believe that Trump had consistently topped all state and nationwide polls besides doing very well in the debates. This is their time to scoff at Trump and his supporters and claim that a Trump victory was all a fantasy and now that slumber has receded, the truth has emerged.

So let’s look beyond the hysteria and examine the facts in a dispassionate manner.

Firstly Iowa is an extremely conservative state where Trump never really expected to win. Historically many candidates have stayed away from Iowa as they focused on other states owing to the impossibility of winning. Trump either lead by a narrow margin or ran a close second, the margin was equivalent to the margin of error. The percentage secured by Trump in opinion polls was usually around mid-twenties and that is what he ended up securing at the Caucus. This proves that he has stable support and none of the other candidates managed to really poach his supporters. Loyalty of supporters is a huge factor at any election and this is concrete proof that Trump supporters are not fickle or easily swayed. If Trump had secured forty percent at the opinion polls and mid-twenties at the Caucus, it clearly would have been cause for serious concern, but that was not the case.  There was a time when Carson had topped the polls in Iowa and he disappeared into oblivion, and then came Ted Cruz and even Rubio who peaked at the right time, if Iowa Caucus were to be held next month perhaps Cruz would fall and Rubio would rise but I am certain Trump would poll consistently in his mid-twenties.

An important part of winning states is winning delegates that help secure the nomination. In that area, Cruz secured 8 delegates while Trump secured 7 delegates, just one less. The darlings of the establishment Jeb Bush secured 1 delegate only while Chris Christie and John Kasich managed to score a duck. Let’s also look at the number of votes, Trump managed to secure the second highest number of votes in the history of Iowa, only around 5000 votes fewer than the winner in a state. 

Prior to elections there was great speculation among experts that most of Trump supporters attend his rallies for entertainment. “They will not turn up to vote” they said. “They are looking for a good time and Trump provides them that. It’s like attending a standup comedy show but this is free of charge. But when it comes to serious business, they will chose a conventional candidate.” That theory was totally disproved as Trump’s voters turned out in large numbers braving the Iowa cold. The turnout in Iowa was higher than anybody had predicted, with 185,000 votes counted outdoing the 121,503 votes from 2012.

A look at the history of winners and losers at the Iowa Caucus to understand the impact it may have nationally. Among the winners in Iowa were Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee who could not broaden their appeal beyond Iowa and did not get even close to securing the nominee. Some of the losers in Iowa such as Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole went on to secure the nominee. Finally a certain Ronald Reagan also came in second at the Iowa caucus in 1980 and went on to become one of the greatest Presidents in the history of the US.

Now for Cruz’s narrow victory despite his time, effort and money in the state of Iowa. It was largely due to the presence of arch conservative voters. No other states where primaries are held have such a conservative base. If one were to examine the details of how Cruz performed, according to the NYT among sub demographics, he won just 19 percent among “somewhat conservative” voters and a mere 9 percent of the “moderate” vote. This is clearly not a triumph that it is projected to be. 


But news that the Cruz campaign indulged in malpractice prior to the Caucus gives his victory an ugly dimension. During the night of the Causus, CNN reporter Chris Moody tweeted that Dr. Ben Carson was not going to NH/SC, but instead he was going to Florida and was to attend the National Prayer Breakfast at DC after that. A blatant lie as Carson had planned meets in NH. This tweet from Moody was retweeted by Rep Steve King with a comment "Carson looks like he is out. Iowans need to know before they vote. Most will go to Cruz, I hope."  The Cruz campaign also sent out the mailers claiming that Dr. Ben Carson was dropping out of the race. They urged recipients to vote for Cruz instead. Since Cruz and Carson were targeting the same group of religious conservative voters, it is a strong possibility that the Carson supporters voted for Cruz thinking their vote may be wasted on Carson. The Cruz campaign also sent out another group of mailers  disguised to look like official communication, this time accusing Iowan of a “voting violation” based on caucus participation. The mailer named and graded individuals and their neighbors based their voting history claiming it was public record. It then warned people to participate in the caucus to improve their grade. Iowan authorities issued a statement condemning the mailer. Finally Cruz campaign also spread rumors that Donald Trump strongly favored of ObamaCare and was pro-choice which again is a total falsehood. These are unpardonable acts and stink of hypocrisy since Cruz had claimed to part of the new wave of clean and honest politics.  So far Cruz has apologized to Carson, but is that enough? These acts of blatant fraudulence should be enough for the GOP to expel Cruz from the race. Time will tell what the GOP does. 

Trump's domination at the polls and his triumphant appearance at rallies have made many forget that he has been a politician for a mere six months. This compared to his GOP Rivals such as John Kasich who has been in active politics for 38 years, Jeb Bush who has been in active politics for 35 year, Christie for 24 years, Cruz for around 20 years and Rubio for 16 years. For a man of such little experience emerging second, miles ahead of career politicians is commendable. Many among these politicians received millions of dollars from a whole myriad of big donors and lobbyists to fund negative adverts and a whole other many of unsavory political maneuvers.

A good measure of success is effort i.e. cost versus benefit. According to the Washington Post, Trump spent a mere 300 dollars per vote, Rubio spent twice with 600 dollars per vote and finally the Ted Cruz spent 700 dollars per vote. But the biggest surprise is the once favorite Jeb Bush who spent an astounding 5200 dollars per vote. For the overall spending, Trump spent 235K dollars in Iowa, while the Ted Cruz spent 3.6 million dollars and then there is Jeb who spent 27.4 million dollars. It must be noted that his brother George W Bush has won the Iowa Caucus while Jeb managed to secure less 3 percent of the votes.

The future for Trump looks bright, he has very strong leads in every other state, and nationally he continues to lead at around 40 percent. Many also appreciated his graceful and classy concession speech that strengthen his bond with Iowans and voters in other states. Most importantly Trump has concrete proof in Iowa that his supporters are here to back him no matter what. Those indulging in attacks and pronouncing his end are making the catastrophic blunder of underestimating him. It is said that a slight setback at an initial stage is often a good thing as it grounds people and make them focus on improving their shortcomings and polishing their strengths, this experience at Iowa will probably do that for Trump campaign. This is a man who has seen many ups and down in his business, but he has always managed to emerge stronger upon a comeback. Mark my words, there will be a comeback next week in NH.

Email: rajanlaad@gmail.com