“Now for some early predictions about
the GOP nominee? “, inquired the affable anchor during the penultimate segment
of the program.
“It’s going to be Jeb.” replied the senior columnist rather tersely.
“Bush as the nominee, but Rubio competitive.” said the blogger.
“Scott Walker could present serious competition, but I agree it has to
be Bush.” said the senior journalist.
“Bush followed closely by Kasich” said the senior political advisor.
“There is no doubt it will be Jeb, but Rubio, Kasich and Christie will
provide stiff competition. In the end, Hillary will be our next president.” said
the political commentator to gentle laughter that provided a launch to the
concluding segment.
‘Lastly, what about a certain Donald Trump” inquired the anchor with a
smirk. There were of sighs and groans across the panel.
“He is not only a bloviating ignoramus but a deranged narcissistic
buffoon. We hear such talk from an inebriated chump at a pub on a Friday night.”
said a senior columnist as cackles spread across the panel. “We degrade
ourselves each time we mention that name” he added with stern revulsion.
“I would have called him is dangerous but he is too ludicrous to be
that. Clearly he sees this race an opportunity for copious publicity and the
media obliges him. Every time he opens his mouth, he lowers the level of
discourse.” said a senior political commentator in his signature monotonous mournful
tone.
“This man is competing for a job once held by Lincoln. Let’s not forget
that” said a senior journalist shaking her head in dismay “Look at the bombast
and abominable manner in which he launched his campaign. He has offended too
many to be a factor in this race” she concluded.
“He’ll be lucky if his immediate family voted for him. He is too
preposterous to be perilous. These high numbers poll are inconsequential. This
is a phenomenon not dissimilar to Herman Kane and Michelle Bachman, leap to straight
to top upon launch, melt into thin air a week later” said a former Senior
Advisor to a former president.
“The GOP does not want Trump to be the nominee. Still better, Trump
himself doesn’t want to be the nominee or even the President. The only person
who wants him as the nominee is Hillary Clinton. I recommend that the best way
to cover Trump is to put him in the entertainment section” concluded the young
blogger of a prominent liberal news site.
**********
The above represents
almost all the political punditry perpetrated towards Donald J. Trump during
his primary campaign. It began with a blatant refusal to acknowledge, then the ridicule
and derision, finally the blatant denial that still exists in some precincts. Despite
all this, Trump now is the presumptive nominee of the GOP.
So why did these
political pundits get it so horribly wrong? Should we ever trust them again?
Could they be no better than your loquacious cab driver who opines about
politics without provocation?
First a bit about the political
pundit. The individual usually has a background in economic, politics and
history coupled with years of experience in either covering or participating in
politics. They have brushed shoulders with the powerful in politics, journalism
and the media. Their knowledge, experience and clout often gives them a unique
perspective on politics. It also enables them to notice patterns and trends such
that they can predict occurrences in politics and careers of politicians. They know of utterances or actions that can
launch a political career and those that can destroy a political career. They
may differ in their political proclivity or ideology but their approach is
identical.
But the pundits often
forget the obvious, that politics is that it is driven by people, primarily
belonging to the working and the middle class. In order to comprehend the
direction of the wind in politics, it is essential to know understand these regular
people. This is where the pundits find themselves lacking as there is hardly
any personal contact with regular people. All their understanding of regular
people voting patterns comes from polls or research or historical archives.
Socially, the pundits interact with like-minded people from the media and politics
and are seldom challenged. This leads to an insulation from the real world that
is probably the real reason why they failed to predict Trump.
The pundits do not know
of those who are hurting due to a soft economy, perhaps not getting jobs that
they are qualified. The pundit has probably never met a middle aged single
mother working two part time jobs as her permanent job was outsourced to a
foreign country. The pundits have not met a young individual who realizes that
they cannot afford a good education due to rising costs. The pundits may read
of criminal illegal immigrants murdering innocent civilians, but have not
first-hand experience with victims. The pundits do not know of the anger that
is incurred by common folk when they hear of mounting costs of prolonged wars
in faraway countries while their own country’s infrastructure crumbling. The
pundits may not have a relative who has suffered in a terror attacks. When the
common folk are fervent about their second amendment right, the pundits don’t quite
get it. Since they are often part of the establishment they fail to understand
anguish that people suffer at the inaction from both parties to tackle issues
that matter deeply to them.
This great disconnect
with people prevents them from understanding what the dictates their behavior
in the voting booth and why the common folk gravitate towards Donald Trump. Last June, Trump mounted his campaign on all
issues that matter to them. When baffled words such as racism, xenophobia were
thrown into the mix. The pundits do not know that for the majority the fear of
terrorism emanates not from ‘Islamophobia’ but for the need of security of them
and the loved ones. The pundits fail to grasp that for majority of regular
people the need to arm themselves is not because they want to harm anybody but
instead to protect themselves. The pundits do not understand that the
opposition for illegal immigration is not driven by racism, it is instead
driven but the need to earn a living and security.
All the pundits had to
do is attend a Trump rally and talk with his supporters to understand their why
they support Trump and their wants, needs, frustrations, aspirations and
dreams. But instead their information of Trump rallies is from out of context
clips of violence or strong words they see on the news or on various websites.
Hence an opinion is developed that Trump supporters are an angry bunch driven
by hate.
Now about Trump the
candidate. For the pundits, Trump is neither the typical politician nor a rigid
ideologue. He cannot be labelled blatantly conservative or liberal. On some
issues he is to the left of the Democrats on others he is to the right of the
GOP and in some cases he has common sense resolutions to problems. This makes
him difficult to read and impossible to predict. For the pundits, traditional
parameter do not work when they try to understand Trump. When Trump commits a
verbal gaffe, the pundits are quick to predict his demise, they have seen other
politicians destroyed having said much less. When Trump prevails, they are
baffled. They fail to realize that the issues that Trump has promised to address
matter so much to the common folk that they a few words out of place do not
matter. This a resilient bond that cannot be broken over trivial matters.
So how have the pundits
fared so far with Trump? When he was on top of the poll, they said it would not
translate to actual votes. When he lost the first contest in Iowa due to unfair
practices by Ted Cruz, they celebrated ‘the end of Trump’. When he began
winning, they said he will lose when other candidates dropped out. When other
candidates dropped out, the predicted he would never cross 40%. When he
had a rough week in Wisconsin they predicted his end. They said he would never
get the nomination and that the GOP convention would be contentious and even violent.
The truth is Trump has gone from strength to strength and has secured around
50-60% of the votes in the last ten primary contests. Trump is now the
presumptive nominee of the party, securing the nomination with more votes than
any other candidate in the history of the GOP. To be fair, some did predict
that he would do well.
Today these are very
experts are predicting that Trump will lose to quite badly Hillary and that his
unfavorable ratings are very high. Do we really have to listen to them anymore?
Quite frankly, your opinionated cab driver may have a better idea of the
direction. He may not be able to author a beautiful prose or remind you of the
historical context. But he is in contact with regular people who matter and
hence may be closed to the truth than many in the media.
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