Covid19: Is Modi losing the perception war?

The media coverage of the second wave of Covid19 in India was been shamefully predictable.

Most of the mainstream media informed us that the ‘system’ was overwhelmed by the sudden spike in Covid19 cases. That no government or healthcare system could possibly handle, even the US was overwhelmed. They blame the citizens and certain states for being reckless. They resort to discrediting the messenger as they downplayed the tragedy. They indulged in falsehoods and the same old disgraceful partisan talking points.

Most of the digital media blames Modi for each and every problem in the country. For this section, each and every Covid19 infection and death are Modi’s and only Modi’s fault, and Modi has ‘blood on his hands’ They post photographs of mass cremations with restrained jubilation. They report hysterically and often invent to sensationalize.

Both sections of the media have erred most grievously and are doing a great disservice to the public.

What we need now is sober, factual reporting and that helps the public make better decisions rather than exacerbate the fear and confusion.

But the question remains had Narendra Modi erred this time on the communication front?

Even his most vicious of critics will concede that Modi is a masterful communicator. They may cynically refer to it as headline management or event management. But it is clear from his myriad appearances on TV, his social media posts, his monthly radio broadcast, and even WhatsApp’s forwards that Modi understands how to communicate such that an extremely positive perception about him prevails, despite his failures.

Critics of the lockdown last year said that it was imposed in haste. They highlight the migrant exodus and economic devastation. But it was still perceived that Modi had no option but to get ahead of the problem to try to curb the spread of Covid19. We knew nothing about the virus back then.

The move was perceived as a necessary evil. Most importantly Modi and the BJP practiced what he preached. They assiduously wore masks in public, practiced social distancing for meetings, and had no public gatherings.

However, if there is anything we have learned about Covid19 around the world, is that we can never ever presume to have conquered it. Like the mutant fiend in the movies, it always finds a way to stealthily return and devastate.

It is therefore nothing short of astounding that the masterful communicator Modi erred so grievously by going on record to proclaim total victory over Covid19, as early as November 2020.

The following is the English translation of the prime minister’s address to the World Economic Forum, Davos, in January.

There is as clear a declaration and celebration of victory against the virus as you could imagine. When the pandemic began, the world was so concerned about India, that a tsunami of infections was going to hit us, Modi said. There were people predicting 700-800 million Indians getting infected and more than two million dying. But India didn’t let this happen and saved humanity from a big disaster, he said.

The following is the resolution passed by the BJP National Executive in February.

“It can be said with pride, India not only defeated Covid under the able, sensible, committed, and visionary leadership of Prime Minister Modi, but also infused in all its citizens the confidence to build an Atma Nirbhar Bharat”.

The party unequivocally hails its leadership for introducing India to the world as a proud and victorious nation in the fight against Covid.”

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national president JP Nadda, addressing party workers in Uttarakhand, drew a comparison between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, who lost the presidential elections while contesting for a second term.

Nadda said the reason for Trump losing the election was the mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, PM Modi took the bold decision of the lockdown, he said.

Cynics claimed these utterances were timed perfectly before the campaign for the state elections in Bihar kicked off. They turned out to be right, in the next few weeks there were rallies and roadshows all over Bihar. Covid19 guidelines were flouted, but it didn’t matter because we had triumphed over Covid19.

In the past, such statements of triumphalism have worked because the devastation hasn’t been ubiquitous.

After demonetization, the salaried class was not much affected owing to their credit cards, debit cards, and their bank accounts. Also, not affected were the rich and influential who had connections to get their ample cash exchanged. The same applies to the economic slowdown, supporters could always counter bad news with anecdotal stories.

It was hence easy to downplay the devastation. You met an occasional individual who told you about his business being devastated or whose wages were cut, but you were largely among people who weren’t affected.

In fact, apocryphal claims that demonetization helped to formalize the economy and curbed black money were believed. It was also easy to claims that only criminal black money holders were critical of the move. Also the poor in the country are accustomed to hardships, they hence just take it in their strides.

The same applies to the Chinese incursion. Myriad versions of the incidences were put out by the government and news media. It was impossible to know the following. Did the Chicoms enter or did they not? Were the Chicoms already for a long time ago? If the Chicoms did not enter why are we celebrating that we drove them out? Whom do we trust?

Since most of us are located very far from those places of consequence, it was easy to spin the narrative. In time we got on with our lives and forgot about it. The same applies to Kashmir.

But Covid19 is a clear and present danger to the well-being of our nation. There are deaths and infections are ubiquitous. It is said that for the second wave, almost everybody knows somebody who has either been infected or who has succumbed to Covid19.

In this volatile climate, you cannot underplay the impact by undercounting deaths or bodies. The advent of social media and mobile phones means that there always will be videos and images of the devastation. Most importantly even if we win over Covid19, the scars of loss will always remain.

It was therefore of the utmost importance that every syllable uttered by authorities previously was well thought out and so is its consequences.

All Modi had to do was declare that we have done well against Covid19, but also issue serious warnings for caution. Then use all mediums of communication to remind people about precautionary measures.

Until fairly recently, Modi and his party people held packed rallies and roadshows in West Bengal. The PM even exclaimed at a rally that he hadn’t seen so many people before. 

Was it hubris? 

Has he lost touch with the occurrences on the ground?

Thus Modi and the BJP squandered all goodwill from the first save. He also lost the moral authority to tell others to be cautious and practices guidelines. Yes, every political party blatantly flouted rules, but that is no excuse for the PM of India with 303 seats in the Lok Sabha. He could have a lead on this front.

It goes without saying that it is impossible to implement any measure uniformly across vast and chaotic India. Every great idea dies upon hitting the ground here. It is a way of life to flout laws and to cut corners to achieve your goals.

Even if Modi had issued strict warnings, people probably would have ignored it either due to carelessness or Covid19 fatigue or the fact that they have to get out of the house to earn a living. 

On the Vaccination Export front, the powers that be resorted to event management. The vaccination drives were broadcasted on TV. 

A big deal was made about the fact that India had developed two indigenous vaccines. It was proclaimed that India under Modi was no longer an importer but an exporter of Vaccines. All of the above is indeed a matter of pride for India, but we probably overdid it.

We had social media posts from world leaders thanking Modi personally for the vaccines. The media celebrated this as the new India, no longer dependent on developed countries for essentials. The truth remains that we were obliged via a treaty GAVI to share some of the vaccines with various countries. Also that the speed at which we vaccinated our people left a lot to be desired.

Now that the second wave had overwhelmed us, Modi’s critics cand and are attacking him with the following:

·      He declared victory over Covid19 and caused people to be complacent about following guidelines.

·      He carried on with rallies and roadshows despite the second wave and is a hypocrite and a super spreader.

·      He exported vaccines to project his own image when his countrymen were in need.

·      He should have imported vaccines, and partnered with the private sector to ensure rapid vaccination.

·      They can point to the Statue of Unity and the Central Vista as gratuitously lavish expenses

They have ample documentary evidence for the above, enough to drive the electorate crazy.

So has Modi lost the perception battle?

There is no denying that his reputation had certainly been dented, what we do not know is the severity of this dent.

After we prevail the pandemic, Modi’s political future will largely depend upon how the opposition manages their communication and how Modi counters it with his narrative.

Luckily for Modi and the BJP, the next national elections are in 2024 and a lot can happen by then. It would be foolish to count the very astute Modi out. If I was a betting man, my money would be Modi, since he is up against weak opposition.