This should have been a cakewalk for Kevin McCarthy. The GOP has a majority in the House which made him the presumptive Speaker. What remained was the formality for casting votes.
But these days in politics, the norm is there are no norms.
By the end of yesterday, the House was adjourned without a
speaker.
https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1610403429549240321
The last time this happened was in 1923 when it took 9
rounds and several days for a speaker to be elected. McCarthy has made
history, alas for him it is for all the wrong reasons.
McCarthy has lost three consecutive votes for Speaker failing to reach the required 218-vote threshold. Among the 222 Republicans in
the House, only 203 voted for McCarthy in the first two rounds, unfortunately for
McCarthy in the third round another Republican turned against him.
It remains unclear if McCarthy has a path to victory could be when the
House returns tomorrow.
McCarthy’s primary detractors were the Freedom Caucus who
think he is part of the problem i.e. the swamp and not of the solution.
The group is led by Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona, who
has put himself forward as an alternative. Biggs
received 10 votes in the first round, while nine Republicans backed other
candidates.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc6PvolmoC0
In the second round, the Freedom Caucus nominated Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio to challenge McCarthy, just moments after Jordan himself nominated McCarthy for Speaker.
Jordan a leading figure of the Freedom Caucus, urged
Republicans to "rally around" McCarthy in the third round of voting, yet
20 Republicans voted for Jordan, again denying victory to McCarthy.
The Freedom Caucus is reportedly holding negotiations with McCarthy. NPR reported that McCarthy has agreed to change the House rules to make it easier to oust a sitting Speaker. This would be an essential check on power and will hold for all Speakers in the future. There could be several other such concessions.
If that wasn’t enough drama, Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who backs McCarthy, claimed that members of the Freedom Caucus, such as Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, were using their power of the vote to negotiate plum panel assignments i.e. their opposition was for personal gain and not based on principles.
https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1610349653941264384
Rep Lauren Boebert of Colorado claimed that during their morning conference, Kevin McCarthy endorsed a threat of removing all committee assignments for Republicans voting against him for Speaker.
https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1610422894756069377
There was a rare display of bipartisanship, AOC was seen in
conversation with GOP Reps Gaetz and Paul Gosar of Arizona.
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1610348154901397504
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1610375672001712128
All 212 Democrats unified behind election
denier Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York for the speaker.
So are the possible outcomes now?
One scenario is that McCarthy strikes deals with the Freedom Caucus and emerges with the gavel, despite being weakened by the compromises he made.
Another possibility is that McCarthy relinquishes his bid and
backs his second in command,
Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, or some other Republican to run as speaker.
Now for the unlikely scenarios.
Perhaps McCarthy wins over centrist Democrats to emerge as the winner. This way he could marginalize the Freedom Caucus while compromising on the MAGA agenda.
Perhaps some Republicans give Jeffries the
votes he needs to become the next speaker of the House.
Perhaps House Republicans build a coalition with Democrats to pick a
speaker who is neither McCarthy nor Jeffries. The House is run by a coalition and the Freedom Caucus is again marginalized. This strange solution was prescribed by John Kasich.
The House cannot proceed with any other business, including
swearing in of new members until they have chosen a Speaker, hence they will
keep voting until a candidate emerges victorious.
While the occurrences of the day may appear chaotic, it may be
a sign of the MAGA wing of the party working and showing their power to push back. This is
how democracy should work. Each and every elected member should vote based on
the pledge they made to voters. They are not meant to function like a flock of sheep proceeding in the same direction without knowledge of the
destination.
Back to McCarthy, Tucker Carlson summarized it well
"McCarthy is not especially conservative. He's
ideologically agnostic. His real constituency is the lobbying community in
Washington. If you've got sincere political beliefs, that's infuriating."
Carlson acknowledged McCarthy's strengths.
“It’s not easy to be Speaker when the House is this closely
divided, and in some ways Kevin McCarthy is perfectly suited for that”
“….McCarthy is willing to spend the next two years living in
hotel rooms raising money for his party ahead of a historic presidential
election. What other Republican in the House is willing to do that?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgIAz77cBlE
There still remain some open questions about the occurrences
yesterday
Since there was talk of the red wave since the beginning of
the year, why didn’t the Freedom Caucus work behind the scenes to build a coalition
within the party to have a candidate of preference? Perhaps someone such as
Jim Jordan could have been elevated much before which would have enabled him to
campaign and seek votes.
Would the Freedom Caucus be comfortable remaining steadfast against McCarthy such that Democrat Hakim Jefferies gets elected? McCarthy may not be even
remotely close to what the Freedom Caucus desire but Jeffries is a far-left
Democrat who stands against everything the GOP and particularly what MAGA
stands for. Back in 2017, he called Trump an illegitimate President. If
Electing McCarthy may allow some of the MAGA agenda to pass,
but electing Jeffries is like placing a roadblock at the last leg of the race
just before the finishing line.
The Freedom Caucus must also think about the voters who gave
the GOP control of the House via their votes. At such a juncture if a
Democrat emerges as a speaker, it would be contrary to the public mandate and anti-Democratic.
The speaker of the House has been a Republican, if the Freedom Caucus isn’t able to cobble together a collation to enable another Republican to become a speaker of the House, they must vote for McCarthy.
The vote should be conditional, McCarthy must lead investigations against Democrats on their abuse of powers, and much more. McCarthy must also lead in blocking the Democrat’s far-left agenda while pushing the MAGA Agenda of freedom and prosperity. If McCarthy fails, they build a coalition to oust McCarthy and use the new rule that allows a group of five members to offer a resolution to remove the speaker.
While making deals one is often compelled to strike a balance between rigidity and flexibility loss is often guaranteed if one treads to either of the extremes.
In politics, the ideal outcome may not always be possible, in such scenarios it is wiser to settle for the best possible outcome, instead of giving the adversary an easy victory.
Fun Fact: The longest
vote in U.S. history took place in 1855, lasting 133 rounds over two
months, from December 1855 to February 1856.
Also appears on American Thinker
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